In forum discussions and some articles I came across with during my research, I learned that comments have been hurled at those people who shared positive remarks about Dinar investing. They are being labeled as someone having connections with dealers or even dealers themselves pretending to be investors or experts giving opinion that the Dinar is a good investment, hoping to boost sales. I am not a dealer! I am not selling Dinars. I am one among the many day to day average people with hard earned money looking for options. I am an investor. I buy Dinars and belong to the first group of people who were "misinformed" by the hype in Dinar sites.

Table 1 illustrates yearend Dinar to U.S. Dollar exchange rates from 2003 to 2008. Notice that the Iraqi Dinar has appreciated by 42.83% averaging 8.57% annually at the height of violence, sectarian incidents and bombings.

If an investor bought a million Dinars in 2003 for say USD $ 600 and sold it on EBay for USD $ 1,000 in Dec 2008, the investor's realized profit is USD $ 400. If Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) or time value of money is factored in (which considers inflation for the period), the Net Present Value (NPV) using a rate of 8% (average yearly inflation) is USD 301.78. Simply put, this means that the investor's USD $ 600 earned USD 301.78 in 2003 dollar values. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is 66.67%. To attain the same level of profit, the investor could have opted to place his money elsewhere with a rate of about 11% compounded annually.

The figures on Table 1 are facts. It proves to me two things:

1. Critics are not necessarily right. Even at the height of violence in Iraq for the period considered (2003-2008) the Dinar has been appreciating in value against the dollar and the figures disprove what critics are saying; that the Dinar is such a risky investment. Of course this is on hindsight, relative to the standpoint of the investor of 2003 discussed above. Had investor 2003 listened, he lost the opportunity to earn USD $ 400 in 5 years with his USD $ 600. Proportionately, had he put in USD 6,000 he came out with USD $ 4,000; USD $ 40,000 for USD $ 60,000 and so on.

2. Dinar Dealer site hype is not necessarily true. Although the value increase is acceptable, it is far from what dealer sites are claiming (USD $3.22 = NID 1.00 in the near future!). So relative to investor 2003, although he profited 66.67% or USD $400, this is far from the millions extensively discussed in the sites. If he held on to the Dinars further into the future, his paper profit of USD $ 400 can all be lost or he may gain more or hit the jackpot. No one knows.

TAKING THE PLUNGE: MY FIRST DINARS

AN OVERSTATED HYPE

When I first heard of the New Iraqi Dinar (NID), I was skeptical but at the same time fascinated by what may be a once in a lifetime opportunity. I started researching as much information as I can. My excitement grew when I came across Dinar sites declaring that the currency may soon rise just like the Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) which rose in value after the Iraq invasion from USD $ .10 to USD $ 3.42 per KWD. Wow!

This overstated hype has indeed overwhelmed a lot of people enough for them to throw in hard earned dollars. I had USD $10,000 in excess money then which can buy me about NID 10 million Iraqi Dinars, more or less. What was stopping me was the risk involved should the political and security situation in Iraq deteriorate. I am sure you are also feeling the same. The fear of loosing my money was enough to deter me for the moment but not totally stop me from eventually buying my first Dinars.

There was yet another fear. I felt that if I don't have a piece of this opportunity I would miss out on the chance of earning some if not a lot of money should the Iraqi Dinar do increase in value and take the course similar to that of the Kuwaiti Dinar. It was a dilemma.

Let me say this. Honestly, my risk tolerance is not high. I have to justify to myself why I am even entertaining the thought of buying Iraqi Dinars? But my gut feel tells me it is worth the risk. Wait a minute. What risk? Why is the U.S. spending billions of tax dollars in Iraq? Why are the major oil companies lining up ready to spend billions in Iraq? Come to think of it, why am I so worried losing my USD $ 10,000 or less when oil companies ought to worry more with their billions. That's funny!

There is enough information on hand but still something is lacking. I can not rely on the opinion of others. Finally I realized that I have to piece together a mosaic of available information to arrive at my own comfortable viewpoint and plan of action.